The Accidental Everything

Don't get me wrong! I have traversed a whole lot of distance away from identifying myself as anything.
For the utilitarian sake of setting context, when I was a toddler, an Astrologer told that I would either become a Judge or a Doctor.

"Are these Respected People?" I asked my Uncle

The answer no longer feels relevant to mention it here.
Decades later after a series of missteps, mostly likely resembling brownian motion I have become 'Accidental Everything!'

Engineer - This didn't put a morsel on my plate!
Banker - I always liked Maths & Money; was only a fling!
Teacher - This was the closest I was to finding something to settle down with!
Economist - I never knew I could like this subject; now I can't switch off the Economist's Lens
Statistician - When the world was finding Data Science as the sexiest Career; I found my calling!

And on 77th Independence Day, I have to revisit my rumination of 2020!
How accidental it feels to live in a country as diverse as India, the largest democracy. Almost crucifies one of the most fundamental underpinnings of Microeconomics (& Political Science) - Arrow's impossibility theorem.

As of 2023, 'Voting' still remains the means to the end of Democratic outcome. Is it flawed or not, is another question altogether. 

As an idealist 20-something, Nationalism sounded too straightjacketed to associate with.
With passage of time, my perspective has shifted. Amidst the chaos, it's still a wonder that we are one of the most promising emerging markets!

If you look closely & a bit cynically, you might call it the 'Number Crumble'.
Our geographical extent & the scale of its inhabitants, are enough to salivate any western Capitalist.

Market! Market! Market!

Investors invariably think in terms of how big is the 'Market Size'? How big of that pie can we capture?

India, or more acceptable these days, Bharat is much more than its market, people or diversity.

India is the only Wonder...ergo...Bharat Bumps all Bullies of the West!

Happy 77th Independence Day!

Is Recession Nearby? : Recession & Inflation – Relationship Explained

Recession and Inflation – Relationship explained

While there seemed to be a sudden spike of enthusiasm among the youth on investment decisions, the World Back became a killjoy with regard to this optimistic environment. Lay-offs became a leading light in the current economic condition as companies started looking for every means to survive this downturn until sales spike up to dependable conditions.
All of this accounts to economic slump called ‘Recession’.

To comprehend what exactly is happening, we’ll figure out the two buzzwords in the market at the moment: Inflation & Recession.

The gist of rise in inflation is in its cyclical behaviour, meaning, when there is a lot of economic activity in the form of sudden spurt in production and the industries seem to be set up in plenty. As a result, the economy booms or let’s say, overheats. (See the video above)

Why? There’s a substantial increase in income generation and at the same time the Central Bank also starts printing money in the initial stages. Subsequently, the economy observes a rise in price level which therefore turns out to be inflationary. When this inflation kicks in, the Central Bank tries to bring down the supply of money by increasing the interest rate.
This automatically reduces the money supply since the demand for money increases and consequently the economic activity reduces.
This is because the investors start chasing interest rates and not economic activity. So, when this happens, economic activity slows down and inflation declines. Hence, Cyclical!
Sounds simple right? Well not really.

This reduction in money supply is fertile for recession which happens due to fall in economic activity. What could be the possible reason for this recession? An idea is that, a boom in the economy results in inflation, and when you try to control inflation, you have a dip or slump called recession. Recession is commonly defined as the two consecutive quarters of economic contraction. “It is a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts  more than a few months.”, defines the National Bureau of Economic Research.

The effects of recession might quite possibly amplify the effects of inflation although it is in the cooling period. Since recession is roughly the slowdown of economic activity, businesses struggle to keep their head above water and lay off employees to curtail expenses until the resumption of reliable economic activity. Since labor is one of the crucial factors of economic activity, there will be a spike in unemployment.
And, this will last about a few months or up until the output that has plunged among businesses goes up significantly.

10 Year Transformation - IIT Kharagpur to ISI Kolkata Convocation

More than once Indian Statistical Institute (ISI) had caught my attention, while I was 24*7 dreaming of getting into an IIT. Two things which I knew about ISI were, it's for Maths & getting in is 10 times tougher than IIT. Needless to say, I did my B.Tech from IIT Kharagpur. The mention of KGP in the above line, sounds quite underwhelming, such is the stature of ISI. Also, please keep aside the ISI jokes about certain intelligence agency in certain nearby nation.

When I was in class 9, I was only good in Maths and I had an enthusiasm about Biology. I wanted to become a doctor. Those days were quite formative and I could almost sense my line of thought now, on why I chose not to pursue medicine. I just couldn't let go of my Maths skills, having only gained a fair grip on the subject pretty late. Till Class 6, my Maths scores were unimpressive to say the least. Also, I wouldn't even count myself as a serious student. I have been and remain a day-dreamer, always lost in the sand-castles of my own. Ruminating and brooding are my allies.


It was around this time, that I decided to become an IITian as most people around me were successful in selling the brand IIT & its association with Math. To a 14 year old Class 9 student, that was not really difficult. The story thereafter, of how I went to IIT is something I have already documented in detail.

This post is not about IIT but about ISI, about the 10 years to ISI, about the 10 years of pain, about the endless attempts at landing onto a ship which sails my boat. You can watch the convocation video with campus tour below:

I worked in startups, taught kids, just read books and kept ruling out career options. Finally, better sense prevailed and my pillar, my wife stood there at a corner while I gave all I had for ISI preparation. I had read a bit of pop economics, pop psychology & pop statistics to pique my interest in Quant Economics at ISI Kolkata.


I can't speak for other programmes but a course in ISI gives you a new way of thinking, a new way of looking at data problems, a new appreciation for statistics. Statistics is not mere complex algebra with lots of numbers interspersed,  it's simply the language of experiments. Just like Mathematics is the language of Science; Statistics is the language of all empirical studies. 

Quantitative Economics course at ISI is meant for equipping economics students with Mathematics & Statistics tools. This makes this course quite specialised and this is not for everyone. And, this is not an alternative to MBA. This course required deep study and mere skimming concepts before exams won't help you in passing exams.
This is like tailor-cut for me. Almost!

I am not the best student when it comes to examinations. I only like examinations which have disproportionately high payoffs and don't require you to mug a lot. 




In the past 10 years, I know most of my batchmates would have completed their PHDs, MBA+Job+Promotion, Startup+Funding, & what have you. And, here I am, happy with my Masters in Quantitative Economics. Perhaps, things are not perfect they have to be made perfect!

Or in my wife's words, "दिन Perfect नही होता, उसे Perfect  बनाना होता है" which loosely translates to ,"Days are not perfect, you make them so"

I really cannot say that the ISI Convocation day was my happiest day, but it was the perfect day!

Book Suggestions Below:
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Essence of MSQE(Indian Statistical Institute) Entrance Exam

First things first, your preparation needs to be pattern independent and you must solely focus on covering the length & breadth of the Syllabus. That being said, Mathematics & Economics are the two subjects you need to study.

For Mathematics:
Get hold of any JEE level objective book (Check in Amazon from here) and cover the full syllabus of MSQE entrance examination's Mathematics portion

For Microeconomics:
Intermediate Microeconomics: A Modern Approach by Varian (Check in Amazon from here)
Intermediate Microeconomics, Test Bank by Varian

For Macroeconomics:
Mankiw's book (Check in Amazon from here)
Dornbusch, Fischer,... (Check in Amazon from here)


Reading the above books is essential but practising the previous year question papers is the most important part of MSQE entrance preparation. You can get it from Indian Statistical Institute's website.

Personal Tip : Go through Amit Goyal Sir's Quora & Youtube Pages