Madhya Pradesh (MP) Elections, 2018 : Result Prediction [Updated]

Election results predictions are always a difficult thing to get right. However, we all can at least know what to expect from a result; the mood of analytics (as I would like to speak)

Let's look at numbers from opinion polls

Date	Polling agency	BJP	INC	Rest
4 April 2018	IBC24	101	119	10
14 August 2018	ABP News- C Voter	106	117	7
9 October 2018	Times Now - Warroom Strategies	142	77	11
9 October 2018	Times Now - Chrome DM	108	103	19
10 October 2018	News Nation	111	109	10
17 October 2018	ABP News- C Voter	108	122	–
25 October 2018	IndiaTV - CNX	128	85	17
02 November 2018	ABP News- C Voter Survey	106	118	6
08 November 2018	Graphnile	60	160	10
09 November 2018	Cvoter	107	116	7
09 November 2018	ABP News- CSDS	116	105	9
09 November 2018	Timesnow - CNX	122	90	18
Average as on 9 November 2018		113	107	10

Image : Wikipedia [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madhya_Pradesh_Legislative_Assembly_election,_2018]

If you are unable to fathom so as to what is going on, probably you are a chart/diagram person. So, let's look at it graphically:

Here, it's clearly showing that there is hardly anything to choose between either of the parties. 'BJP Gain' means how many more seats BJP is going to get as per the current opinion poll compared to the last poll. Negative gain or loss hasn't been represented. Similarly for Congress you have INC gain.

Although, you might feel that BJP has seen a sharp surge in the run up to elections, that could be just an illusion of how the data is represented by agencies and me.

Let's look at more graphics


And one more:

Source : https://www.crowdwisdom.co.in/MP/Home?a=2


This clearly paints the picture clear that BJP is not getting a simple majority if we believe the numbers which we have. That being said, it's not Congress's gain either.

Apart from these, I have my own way of getting to predictive aspect of anything using my 'Optimistic-Pessimistic-Most Likely Estimate'. More on the technical details and intuitions behind the estimate later. As of now, let's just chew in what my estimator has to say:

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BJP		INC
Optimistic	150		170
Pessimistic	50		70
Most Likely	107		94
Prediction	102		111

So, Congress(INC) is going to fall short by around 5-10 seats. Well, even BJP can from the government if they manage some sort of post poll alliance. Certainly, no one can predict with an omniscient accuracy. Everything will be clear in less than a week's time. Till then we can only predict.


Places you might want to go to know more about Madhya Pradesh (MP) Elections, 2018 : Result Prediction
1. High polling means vote for BJP? [https://goo.gl/eUn1tj]
2. Google Trends [https://goo.gl/qGUkik]
3. Can Congress Defeat BJP In MP Election, Know What Ganesha Says [https://goo.gl/XAgH6X]
4. Satta market speculates a likely win for Congress in Madhya Pradesh polls [https://goo.gl/GPgVEW]
5. Quora Answers [https://goo.gl/4FGk5n]

Of course, do check these links to come up with your own predictions.

Update for Exit Polls
Let's look at the pulse of polls, after exit polls.

Polling agency	BJP	INC	Others
Today's Chanakya	103	125	2
C Voter – Republic TV	106	118	6
Axis My India – India Today	111	113	6
News Nation	118	106	6
Jan Ki Baat– Republic TV	118	105	7
VDPA Associates	135	88	7
CSDS – ABP News	94	126	10
India News- NETA	106	112	12
CNX– Times Now	126	89	15
Poll of Polls	113	109	8

Image : Wikipedia [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madhya_Pradesh_Legislative_Assembly_election,_2018]

This shows nothing substantive apart from the fact that BJP & Congress(INC) are squeezing the seats out of other parties.

This is what my comprehensive 'Optimistic-Pessimistic-Most Likely Estimate' predicts:

BJP		INC
Optimistic	166		172
Pessimistic	69		74
Most Likely	109		99
Prediction	115		115

Ohho! Numbers can't get more close than this. Just in case, you want to know I'm trying to predict the outcome for BJP/INC hence, ignored the upside for regional parties. That being said, you can hardly say who will form the government? Let the machinations begin!