Unknown Unknowns Hindsight

Hindsight is the wisest philosopher, unequivocal macroeconomist, best predictive modeller and ... you get the drift!

Few years back, I had read a response by Donald Rumsfeld , "...But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know. ..."

In most of the situations, we are in the land of 'unknown unknowns' and our choices today are hardly going to be the result of any optimisation exercise based on careful weighing of all the variables concerned. Most of the time, we have to choose the action & rationalise them later. Only, when we hit the bulls eye, our hindsight puts a label of 'success' or 'outperformance' on them. I hope you remember the famous line from Steve Jobs’ 2005 Stanford Commencement Address, "...you can’t connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backward..."

Does that mean we are helpless at the hands of future? 

Does that mean we can't optimise?

Does that mean we can only produce helpless policy makers?

Of course, the answers to above questions need to take in the nuances involved on a case-by-case basis. I will tell you what I do. Thumb-rules! When you observe life all around you, there is a development of intuition. By intuition, I am referring to the type described by Daniel Kahneman in 'Thinking, Fast and Slow'. Well, this is what I follow, if my gut says do this, I ask myself, "How much knowledge I have gathered about this situation/scenario from past experiences?". Contingent on the above two steps, the choices are made. And, borrowing from Aldous Huxley's Ape and Essence, "...Ends are ape-chosen; only the means are man's..." 

Thumb-rules, I realise make one prone to biases & prejudices. This is definitely a tight-rope walk, of balancing between thumb rules & not taking prejudiced decisions. Remember, all actions have consequences. No right or wrong actions exist, such value judgements merely cloud you!

PS : Putting 'life back' to this dormant blog! 

Money, Assets & Friends

What do you really need in life? No, apart from Oxygen, Water & Food?
Do you need money? Do you need a house? Do you need a lot of friends?
Do you need a lot of servants? Do you need a chauffeur driven car?
Do you need to be an Investment Banker? Do you need to be as relevant, popular & wealthy as Elon Musk? 

Chew on it!

There are no absolute answers, you have what you need. You strive for what you want. Your life, your choices! But, yes your choices have consequences. No value judgement on either your choices or consequences.

You want what you want!

As, I have aged over the last decade, it has dawned on me that I really don't desire all the fancy things/titles I so aspired for, few years back. A lot of what I wanted appear quite frivolous and meaningless. May be this is a phase, too! No, this isn't mid-life/quarter-life crisis! All I want now is a cup of tea, a comfortable chair & view of snow-clad mountain glistened by early morning sun! Is it a lot? 



Money still buys ...

Of Course, nothing is free in this world. You either need to have a lot of assets or stream of money/cash flow to get anything of material value. Tea is not free, chair isn't free unless you make your own, any picturesque view comes with a price tag! 

How about expanding the radius of your self-centred life?

We have all become hyper-individualistic, or is it just me? Anyway, truth is we mingle only to jingle, these days. Most of our material needs are taken care of without any human interaction! But, is it sustainable? I know, I am failing miserably to drive down the point that we all need people. Call them friends, family or well-wishers! 

There, I have completed the triad! Money, Assets & Friends! That's all we need in life. Rest are just bells & whistles. Again, over-simplifying a lot of nuances of life.

PS : I have written more than 100 posts on this blog!