Unknown Unknowns Hindsight

Hindsight is the wisest philosopher, unequivocal macroeconomist, best predictive modeller and ... you get the drift!

Few years back, I had read a response by Donald Rumsfeld , "...But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know. ..."

In most of the situations, we are in the land of 'unknown unknowns' and our choices today are hardly going to be the result of any optimisation exercise based on careful weighing of all the variables concerned. Most of the time, we have to choose the action & rationalise them later. Only, when we hit the bulls eye, our hindsight puts a label of 'success' or 'outperformance' on them. I hope you remember the famous line from Steve Jobs’ 2005 Stanford Commencement Address, "...you can’t connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backward..."

Does that mean we are helpless at the hands of future? 

Does that mean we can't optimise?

Does that mean we can only produce helpless policy makers?

Of course, the answers to above questions need to take in the nuances involved on a case-by-case basis. I will tell you what I do. Thumb-rules! When you observe life all around you, there is a development of intuition. By intuition, I am referring to the type described by Daniel Kahneman in 'Thinking, Fast and Slow'. Well, this is what I follow, if my gut says do this, I ask myself, "How much knowledge I have gathered about this situation/scenario from past experiences?". Contingent on the above two steps, the choices are made. And, borrowing from Aldous Huxley's Ape and Essence, "...Ends are ape-chosen; only the means are man's..." 

Thumb-rules, I realise make one prone to biases & prejudices. This is definitely a tight-rope walk, of balancing between thumb rules & not taking prejudiced decisions. Remember, all actions have consequences. No right or wrong actions exist, such value judgements merely cloud you!

PS : Putting 'life back' to this dormant blog! 

Money, Assets & Friends

What do you really need in life? No, apart from Oxygen, Water & Food?
Do you need money? Do you need a house? Do you need a lot of friends?
Do you need a lot of servants? Do you need a chauffeur driven car?
Do you need to be an Investment Banker? Do you need to be as relevant, popular & wealthy as Elon Musk? 

Chew on it!

There are no absolute answers, you have what you need. You strive for what you want. Your life, your choices! But, yes your choices have consequences. No value judgement on either your choices or consequences.

You want what you want!

As, I have aged over the last decade, it has dawned on me that I really don't desire all the fancy things/titles I so aspired for, few years back. A lot of what I wanted appear quite frivolous and meaningless. May be this is a phase, too! No, this isn't mid-life/quarter-life crisis! All I want now is a cup of tea, a comfortable chair & view of snow-clad mountain glistened by early morning sun! Is it a lot? 



Money still buys ...

Of Course, nothing is free in this world. You either need to have a lot of assets or stream of money/cash flow to get anything of material value. Tea is not free, chair isn't free unless you make your own, any picturesque view comes with a price tag! 

How about expanding the radius of your self-centred life?

We have all become hyper-individualistic, or is it just me? Anyway, truth is we mingle only to jingle, these days. Most of our material needs are taken care of without any human interaction! But, is it sustainable? I know, I am failing miserably to drive down the point that we all need people. Call them friends, family or well-wishers! 

There, I have completed the triad! Money, Assets & Friends! That's all we need in life. Rest are just bells & whistles. Again, over-simplifying a lot of nuances of life.

PS : I have written more than 100 posts on this blog! 

10 Year Transformation - IIT Kharagpur to ISI Kolkata Convocation

More than once Indian Statistical Institute (ISI) had caught my attention, while I was 24*7 dreaming of getting into an IIT. Two things which I knew about ISI were, it's for Maths & getting in is 10 times tougher than IIT. Needless to say, I did my B.Tech from IIT Kharagpur. The mention of KGP in the above line, sounds quite underwhelming, such is the stature of ISI. Also, please keep aside the ISI jokes about certain intelligence agency in certain nearby nation.

When I was in class 9, I was only good in Maths and I had an enthusiasm about Biology. I wanted to become a doctor. Those days were quite formative and I could almost sense my line of thought now, on why I chose not to pursue medicine. I just couldn't let go of my Maths skills, having only gained a fair grip on the subject pretty late. Till Class 6, my Maths scores were unimpressive to say the least. Also, I wouldn't even count myself as a serious student. I have been and remain a day-dreamer, always lost in the sand-castles of my own. Ruminating and brooding are my allies.


It was around this time, that I decided to become an IITian as most people around me were successful in selling the brand IIT & its association with Math. To a 14 year old Class 9 student, that was not really difficult. The story thereafter, of how I went to IIT is something I have already documented in detail.

This post is not about IIT but about ISI, about the 10 years to ISI, about the 10 years of pain, about the endless attempts at landing onto a ship which sails my boat. You can watch the convocation video with campus tour below:

I worked in startups, taught kids, just read books and kept ruling out career options. Finally, better sense prevailed and my pillar, my wife stood there at a corner while I gave all I had for ISI preparation. I had read a bit of pop economics, pop psychology & pop statistics to pique my interest in Quant Economics at ISI Kolkata.


I can't speak for other programmes but a course in ISI gives you a new way of thinking, a new way of looking at data problems, a new appreciation for statistics. Statistics is not mere complex algebra with lots of numbers interspersed,  it's simply the language of experiments. Just like Mathematics is the language of Science; Statistics is the language of all empirical studies. 

Quantitative Economics course at ISI is meant for equipping economics students with Mathematics & Statistics tools. This makes this course quite specialised and this is not for everyone. And, this is not an alternative to MBA. This course required deep study and mere skimming concepts before exams won't help you in passing exams.
This is like tailor-cut for me. Almost!

I am not the best student when it comes to examinations. I only like examinations which have disproportionately high payoffs and don't require you to mug a lot. 




In the past 10 years, I know most of my batchmates would have completed their PHDs, MBA+Job+Promotion, Startup+Funding, & what have you. And, here I am, happy with my Masters in Quantitative Economics. Perhaps, things are not perfect they have to be made perfect!

Or in my wife's words, "दिन Perfect नही होता, उसे Perfect  बनाना होता है" which loosely translates to ,"Days are not perfect, you make them so"

I really cannot say that the ISI Convocation day was my happiest day, but it was the perfect day!

Book Suggestions Below:
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Daily Gratitude Affirmation for 'Jivatma'

The universe provides me everything I need. 

Its timing is just perfect. 

Food, clothing, shelter, knowledge, joy, entertainment, sensual pleasures 

and everything amongst them is provided by a diligent mechanism 

to nurture the 'Jivatma' and dispel the darkness of ignorance. 

Universe is listening to you. 

Be sincere and clear, 

universe will send everything your way. 

Caveat is you need to start treading the path, 

universe doesn't knock on doors, 

it meets you at the highway of life. 

Now, it's your choice to stay at home and be foolishly wishful 

or step out take a bus/auto/metro 

or drive your own car 

or else book an Uber! 

But you need to be on the way to meet your gifts coming along

Depression : Come out of it

To Anyone Thinking About Depression 

First of all, what most people need to learn about 'Depression' is that it is NOT extreme sadness or despair. Depression is a disease like Cancer, ....(put other diseases you know here)..., So, It needs to handled by only experts. Society often judge depression patients as 'weak'. I certainly know it is NOT TRUE. The chemicals/hormones/neurons are in a bad state and need an intervention. It can happen to almost anyone

Next on the list, is to not give two hoots to what society thinks about you & their idea of 'success for you'. You have an extremely short life and you don't have time to fit in as per their preferences. The good news & most important thing here would be to understand that 'mental health' is always in your hands. It requires work. Real work. Mind or Brain is a tool.

I would like to personally suggest that 'Meditation & Self-Awareness' helps. But the key is you need to do it when you are happy and at the highest state of mental health as that creates a refuge for your brain to go to when it is not feeling in the best shape. So, it becomes the chicken-egg problem.

Anyway it is always prudent to bring in any form of meditation in your daily life. There are some very good resources on podcasting sites and YouTube. There is a mediation method for everyone, no-one-size-fits-all.

Meditation must not be confused with any religious ritual, it is a mental exercise. That being said, it is unfortunate that the monopoly of meditation lies in the hands of Religious & Spiritual Leaders & NOT Medical Practitioners. In the world of second bests, you could give 'Zen Meditation' (Get it on Amazon) a try without dipping yourself too much in the mystical aspects. Also, if you want to take it to the next level, try 'Prāṇāyāma'.

And, reading books on 'Meditation & Self-Awareness' is highly recommended if you can give that much time. (Get it all on Amazon from here)  

My personal recommendations are:
1. Man's Search for Meaning by Viktor Frankl (Get it on Amazon from here)
2. When All Is Not Well by Om Swami (Get it on Amazon from here)