Madhya Pradesh (MP) Elections, 2018 : Result Prediction [Updated]

Election results predictions are always a difficult thing to get right. However, we all can at least know what to expect from a result; the mood of analytics (as I would like to speak)

Let's look at numbers from opinion polls

Date	Polling agency	BJP	INC	Rest
4 April 2018	IBC24	101	119	10
14 August 2018	ABP News- C Voter	106	117	7
9 October 2018	Times Now - Warroom Strategies	142	77	11
9 October 2018	Times Now - Chrome DM	108	103	19
10 October 2018	News Nation	111	109	10
17 October 2018	ABP News- C Voter	108	122	–
25 October 2018	IndiaTV - CNX	128	85	17
02 November 2018	ABP News- C Voter Survey	106	118	6
08 November 2018	Graphnile	60	160	10
09 November 2018	Cvoter	107	116	7
09 November 2018	ABP News- CSDS	116	105	9
09 November 2018	Timesnow - CNX	122	90	18
Average as on 9 November 2018		113	107	10

Image : Wikipedia [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madhya_Pradesh_Legislative_Assembly_election,_2018]

If you are unable to fathom so as to what is going on, probably you are a chart/diagram person. So, let's look at it graphically:

Here, it's clearly showing that there is hardly anything to choose between either of the parties. 'BJP Gain' means how many more seats BJP is going to get as per the current opinion poll compared to the last poll. Negative gain or loss hasn't been represented. Similarly for Congress you have INC gain.

Although, you might feel that BJP has seen a sharp surge in the run up to elections, that could be just an illusion of how the data is represented by agencies and me.

Let's look at more graphics


And one more:

Source : https://www.crowdwisdom.co.in/MP/Home?a=2


This clearly paints the picture clear that BJP is not getting a simple majority if we believe the numbers which we have. That being said, it's not Congress's gain either.

Apart from these, I have my own way of getting to predictive aspect of anything using my 'Optimistic-Pessimistic-Most Likely Estimate'. More on the technical details and intuitions behind the estimate later. As of now, let's just chew in what my estimator has to say:

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BJP		INC
Optimistic	150		170
Pessimistic	50		70
Most Likely	107		94
Prediction	102		111

So, Congress(INC) is going to fall short by around 5-10 seats. Well, even BJP can from the government if they manage some sort of post poll alliance. Certainly, no one can predict with an omniscient accuracy. Everything will be clear in less than a week's time. Till then we can only predict.


Places you might want to go to know more about Madhya Pradesh (MP) Elections, 2018 : Result Prediction
1. High polling means vote for BJP? [https://goo.gl/eUn1tj]
2. Google Trends [https://goo.gl/qGUkik]
3. Can Congress Defeat BJP In MP Election, Know What Ganesha Says [https://goo.gl/XAgH6X]
4. Satta market speculates a likely win for Congress in Madhya Pradesh polls [https://goo.gl/GPgVEW]
5. Quora Answers [https://goo.gl/4FGk5n]

Of course, do check these links to come up with your own predictions.

Update for Exit Polls
Let's look at the pulse of polls, after exit polls.

Polling agency	BJP	INC	Others
Today's Chanakya	103	125	2
C Voter – Republic TV	106	118	6
Axis My India – India Today	111	113	6
News Nation	118	106	6
Jan Ki Baat– Republic TV	118	105	7
VDPA Associates	135	88	7
CSDS – ABP News	94	126	10
India News- NETA	106	112	12
CNX– Times Now	126	89	15
Poll of Polls	113	109	8

Image : Wikipedia [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madhya_Pradesh_Legislative_Assembly_election,_2018]

This shows nothing substantive apart from the fact that BJP & Congress(INC) are squeezing the seats out of other parties.

This is what my comprehensive 'Optimistic-Pessimistic-Most Likely Estimate' predicts:

BJP		INC
Optimistic	166		172
Pessimistic	69		74
Most Likely	109		99
Prediction	115		115

Ohho! Numbers can't get more close than this. Just in case, you want to know I'm trying to predict the outcome for BJP/INC hence, ignored the upside for regional parties. That being said, you can hardly say who will form the government? Let the machinations begin!

Monetary Worth of a Housewife

"I think a mother deserves the highest respect and when you talk about salary it's not always about cash but I feel it's the love and respect that you give to someone. My mother has always been the biggest inspiration in my life. All mothers sacrifice so much for their kids. So, I think it is the job of a mother that deserves the highest salary,"
- Manushi Chhillar, Miss World 2017 


This reply led few news outlets to come up with back-of-the-envelope salary estimates like this. 
As much as these estimates are ludicrous, they have a few pearls of wisdom. A housewife manages so much yet is always looked down upon by a lot of people. Few feminists, even consider the tasks associated with being a housewife offensive and unworthy of their time. 

Yet we might consider few numbers to get a feel of the issue. 

source : https://goo.gl/9bx576

Let's just add up the seemingly sane numbers and discount the rest

So, a housewife clearly generates 4 Lakhs Rupees per year in an average household. So, are we just letting this value creation go unrewarded? Few might argue that she works for herself too as she is part of the house. So, the value creation inherently enhances her life too. But, that same applies to someone working outside the confines of his/her house. If you work for an MnC, indirectly you are also working for yourself. If the company does well, you will get the trickle-down benefit of it. Of course, the scale is different. Essentially, shall we not credit this much amount of money directly to a homemaker's bank account?

Now, few could question that she gets a lot of monetary benefits implicitly when the husband finances all her expenses. A lot of females might even get lump sum amounts in chunks but that is not in the form of remuneration for her work but a bounty for being a dutiful wife.

A monthly salary which clearly values her work and her time is the thing to practice. This way no feminist could ever think of a housewife in a condescending way. Let's start sending all the housewives this well deserved monthly salary of anything near 35,000/- depending upon your household's condition.

Can we give the end-of-the-month joy of receiving the 'Salary credited SMS' to our homemakers as well?

Book Suggestions Below:
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Love Kills You ... but What Doesn't?

When you love someone/something, you have to allot a special portion of your life towards nurturing your love. In this process, you have to kill your self. You no longer possess that self. It cannot return back. It is a slow death. You gradually keep on losing yourself to pursuits you love, as you chart your path in this maze called life.

Love lot like any other biological function happens repeatedly till we die. The one thing which separates love from other needs is its blinding hold on the self. It always feels that love 'like this' has never happened before and will never happen ever again. And, in all probability this ought to be true. This is how I would I'd like to define 'Love'. Or I really don't understand love.

I strongly believe that things which consume our mind, consume our bodies too. They decide our physical existence. Beginning of love can be thought of as the aroma of a new exotic delicacy. Yes, the romance we experience in the early days is lot like that aroma which captivates us for the first time.

We tend to get attracted, distracted & diverted as we keep on moving forward to play a part in the nature cycle of birth, sustenance & death. These are the ways to make us get into the self-destructive act of loving. All the same, you resist love or accept it, the effects are not going to change. Love is going to topple all your ideas of life; and about yourself. You can then choose to stand in that hurricane waiting for it to get over or become a part of it & lose your identity. Losing your identity is the bravest thing you can do. It makes your realise the magnanimity of nature and your feeble yet essential role in it.

Love batters you, moulds you into a new being to be fed into the circle of existence. The part of you which died takes a form of fossil to give clues to earthly beings as to what to expect next.

Love is always a matter of choice. No matter how we feel about it. It is a full time job. You have to nurture your love. Let's look at it as something which is killing or burning you from inside. But, if you take its proper care, it cures a lot of things. It hastens the process of your dissolution of existence into mother nature. It is what mother nature wants from you. And, so she cures you by love. If you resist, you get reprimanded. Accepting love, and losing yourself in the hurricane to metamorphose into something the world needs is indeed art. Art is Love. So, love is love. Excuse me! What is love? Love is what you lack...perhaps!
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Anyone can qualify JEE Mains in 3 weeks & Best Tip to Boost Your Rank

I don't need to introduce you about the fierce competition for getting into IITs & NITs. The first hurdle is to qualify JEE mains which was previously known as AIEEE. Having appeared for AIEEE (say it JEE mains) twice, got through it twice and coached numerous students of mine in the last 4-5 years has provided me with a sure shot way to qualify or boost your rank in less than a month. Only requirement from my end would be your complete devotion in these few weeks and follow each & every step as I'm mentioning below:


Step 1: 

Get hold of last 15 years JEE Mains (or AIEEE, as it was known few years back) question papers. Solve them subject-wise. In other words, only solve physics paper in a 1 hour sitting, chemistry & maths in different 1 hour time-slots.
Do this for the last 10-15 years (Jitni Aapki Shraddha ho!).
In entirety, you would be needing 30-45 hours for this task. Do this in one week. This is how you would devote your first week.


Step 2:

Calculate your scores. In addition to that, analyse the paper by downloading solutions from the internet. I'll not help with links, you definitely are more net-savy if you are reading this. Segregate the questions which you got wrong or couldn't attempt into three categories. The categories are namely, 'Easy & Doable', 'Medium & Input Needed' and 'Difficult & Avoidable'. Let me brief you the description of this classification & rationale behind it.

Easy & Doable :
The questions which definitely are easy but because of some silly reasons you missed out on scoring from these.

Medium & Input Needed :
These are the questions which can be solved by you if you do some self-study or ask a friend/tutor/coach.

Difficult & Avoidable :
These are the questions which need a lot of study from your end and even then you won't be confident about solving them or their variants in the actual JEE Mains day.


Now the strategy is to judiciously use our time. So, we'll study only topics related to 'Medium & Input Needed' questions and not waste any time on 'Difficult & Avoidable' type. But before you do this, please also calculate your score percentage by adjusting for 'Easy & Doable' & 'Medium & Input Needed' categories. So, you'll have three kinds of scores. Actual, 'Easy & Doable' & 'Medium & Input Needed'.

Actual = Actual

'Easy & Doable' = Actual Score + Add 'Easy & Doable'

'Medium & Input Needed' = Actual Score + Add 'Easy & Doable' + 'Medium & Input Needed'


When I say add 'Easy & Doable', you have to adjust your score by +4 if you missed an 'Easy & Doable' question and +5 if you attempted it incorrectly. Similarly, do for the 'Medium & Input Needed' and other questions. Then, calculate your score percentages and tabulate them like below:

The above is what one of my students has sent me. This would be a proper appraisal & indicator of your expected rank with the current level of understanding. You also have to identify the key areas of physics, chemistry & maths to focus on, somewhat like given below which my student has done.

You, my friend, also have to do a similar exercise. Now, start reading those identified topics from 'Medium & Input Needed'. This would definitely vary from student to student.

Take 7-10 day for this step.


Step 3:

After doing subject-analysis and self-study of identified topics from 'Medium & Input Needed' you are 90% ready for JEE mains. Only now start solving full papers in 3 hours by strictly following the time constraint. Buy a sample paper or download practice JEE Mains paper from the internet for this step. Take around a week for this exercise. This step is to build your examination temperament.




All these steps are tried & tested successfully by various students. You need to wane off the variations in your score. This would build confidence & predictability in yourself. If you follow all these steps, you are bound to qualify JEE Mains & enhance your All India Rank by a considerable margin.

For help in anything related to JEE mains, you can reach out to me at : ashishiitkgp4@gmail.com

I am always happy to help.

Best of luck for your JEE Mains!

Find below my brief video on physics preparation strategy for JEE or NEET

 

 You can also check all my JEE or NEET preparation videos below