Madhya Pradesh (MP) Elections, 2018 : Result Prediction [Updated]



Election results predictions are always a difficult thing to get right. However, we all can at least know what to expect from a result; the mood of analytics (as I would like to speak)

Let's look at numbers from opinion polls

Date
Polling agency
BJPINC
4 April 2018IBC2410111910
14 August 2018ABP News- C Voter1061177
9 October 2018Times Now - Warroom Strategies1427711
9 October 2018Times Now - Chrome DM10810319
10 October 2018News Nation11110910
17 October 2018ABP News- C Voter108122
25 October 2018IndiaTV - CNX1288517
02 November 2018ABP News- C Voter Survey1061186
08 November 2018Graphnile6016010
09 November 2018Cvoter1071167
09 November 2018ABP News- CSDS1161059
09 November 2018Timesnow - CNX1229018
Average as on 9 November 201811310710
Image : Wikipedia [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madhya_Pradesh_Legislative_Assembly_election,_2018]

If you are unable to fathom so as to what is going on, probably you are a chart/diagram person. So, let's look at it graphically:

Here, it's clearly showing that there is hardly anything to choose between either of the parties. 'BJP Gain' means how many more seats BJP is going to get as per the current opinion poll compared to the last poll. Negative gain or loss hasn't been represented. Similarly for Congress you have INC gain.

Although, you might feel that BJP has seen a sharp surge in the run up to elections, that could be just an illusion of how the data is represented by agencies and me.

Let's look at more graphics


And one more:

Source : https://www.crowdwisdom.co.in/MP/Home?a=2


This clearly paints the picture clear that BJP is not getting a simple majority if we believe the numbers which we have. That being said, it's not Congress's gain either.

Apart from these, I have my own way of getting to predictive aspect of anything using my 'Optimistic-Pessimistic-Most Likely Estimate'. More on the technical details and intuitions behind the estimate later. As of now, let's just chew in what my estimator has to say:

-->
BJPINC
Optimistic150170
Pessimistic5070
Most Likely10794
Prediction102111


So, Congress(INC) is going to fall short by around 5-10 seats. Well, even BJP can from the government if they manage some sort of post poll alliance. Certainly, no one can predict with an omniscient accuracy. Everything will be clear in less than a week's time. Till then we can only predict.


Places you might want to go to know more about Madhya Pradesh (MP) Elections, 2018 : Result Prediction
1. High polling means vote for BJP? [https://goo.gl/eUn1tj]
2. Google Trends [https://goo.gl/qGUkik]
3. Can Congress Defeat BJP In MP Election, Know What Ganesha Says [https://goo.gl/XAgH6X]
4. Satta market speculates a likely win for Congress in Madhya Pradesh polls [https://goo.gl/GPgVEW]
5. Quora Answers [https://goo.gl/4FGk5n]

Of course, do check these links to come up with your own predictions.

Update for Exit Polls
Let's look at the pulse of polls, after exit polls.


Polling agency
BJPINC
Today's Chanakya1031252
C Voter – Republic TV1061186
Axis My India – India Today1111136
News Nation1181066
Jan Ki Baat– Republic TV1181057
VDPA Associates135887
CSDS – ABP News9412610
India News- NETA10611212
CNX– Times Now1268915
Poll of Polls1131098
Image : Wikipedia [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madhya_Pradesh_Legislative_Assembly_election,_2018]

This shows nothing substantive apart from the fact that BJP & Congress(INC) are squeezing the seats out of other parties.

This is what my comprehensive 'Optimistic-Pessimistic-Most Likely Estimate' predicts:

BJPINC
Optimistic166172
Pessimistic6974
Most Likely10999
Prediction115115

Ohho! Numbers can't get more close than this. Just in case, you want to know I'm trying to predict the outcome for BJP/INC hence, ignored the upside for regional parties. That being said, you can hardly say who will form the government? Let the machinations begin!



Monetary Worth of a Housewife

"I think a mother deserves the highest respect and when you talk about salary it's not always about cash but I feel it's the love and respect that you give to someone. My mother has always been the biggest inspiration in my life. All mothers sacrifice so much for their kids. So, I think it is the job of a mother that deserves the highest salary,"
Manushi Chhillar, Miss World 2017 


This reply led few news outlets to come up with back-of-the-envelope salary estimates like this
As much as these estimates are ludicrous, they have a few pearls of wisdom. A housewife manages so much yet is always looked down upon by a lot of people. Few feminists, even consider the tasks associated with being a housewife offensive and unworthy of their time. 

Yet we might consider few numbers to get a feel of the issue. 

source : https://goo.gl/9bx576

Let's just add up the seemingly sane numbers and discount the rest


So, a housewife clearly generates 4 Lakhs Rupees per year in an average household. So, are we just letting this value creation go unrewarded? Few might argue that she works for herself too as she is part of the house. So, the value creation inherently enhances her life too. But, that same applies to someone working outside the confines of his/her house. If you work for an MnC, indirectly you are also working for yourself. If the company does well, you will get the trickle-down benefit of it. Of course, the scale is different. Essentially, shall we not credit this much amount of money directly to a homemaker's bank account?

Now, few could question that she gets a lot of monetary benefits implicitly when the husband finances all her expenses. A lot of females might even get lump sum amounts in chunks but that is not in the form of remuneration for her work but a bounty for being a dutiful wife.

A monthly salary which clearly values her work and her time is the thing to practice. This way no feminist could ever think of a housewife in a condescending way. Let's start sending all the housewives this well deserved monthly salary of anything near 35,000/- depending upon your household's condition.

Can we give the end-of-the-month joy of receiving the 'Salary credited SMS' to our homemakers as well?





Love Kills You ... but What Doesn't?

When you love someone/something, you have to allot a special portion of your life towards nurturing your love. In this process, you have to kill your self. You no longer possess that self. It cannot return back. It is a slow death. You gradually keep on losing yourself to pursuits you love, as you chart your path in this maze called life.

Love lot like any other biological function happens repeatedly till we die. The one thing which separates love from other needs is its blinding hold on the self. It always feels that love 'like this' has never happened before and will never happen ever again. And, in all probability this ought to be true. This is how I would I'd like to define 'Love'. Or I really don't understand love.


I strongly believe that things which consume our mind, consume our bodies too. They decide our physical existence. Beginning of love can be thought of as the aroma of a new exotic delicacy. Yes, the romance we experience in the early days is lot like that aroma which captivates us for the first time.

We tend to get attracted, distracted & diverted as we keep on moving forward to play a part in the nature cycle of birth, sustenance & death. These are the ways to make us get into the self-destructive act of loving. All the same, you resist love or accept it, the effects are not going to change. Love is going to topple all your ideas of life; and about yourself. You can then choose to stand in that hurricane waiting for it to get over or become a part of it & lose your identity. Losing your identity is the bravest thing you can do. It makes your realise the magnanimity of nature and your feeble yet essential role in it.

Love batters you, moulds you into a new being to be fed into the circle of existence. The part of you which died takes a form of fossil to give clues to earthly beings as to what to expect next.

Love is always a matter of choice. No matter how we feel about it. It is a full time job. You have to nurture your love. Let's look at it as something which is killing or burning you from inside. But, if you take its proper care, it cures a lot of things. It hastens the process of your dissolution of existence into mother nature. It is what mother nature wants from you. And, so she cures you by love. If you resist, you get reprimanded. Accepting love, and losing yourself in the hurricane to metamorphose into something the world needs is indeed art. Art is Love. So, love is love. Excuse me! What is love? Love is what you lack...perhaps!